Seminars

General Departmental Seminar Series

Spatial Cluster Detection Using Bayes Factors from Overparameterized Models

Ronald Gangnon, PhD, Departments of Biostatistics and
Medical Informatics, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Friday, February 27, 2004, 12-1 p.m.

132 WARF Building, 610 Walnut St.

ABSTRACT

We consider a partition model for estimation of regional disease rates and for detection of spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm. As an alternative, we consider models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions. We explore the ability of these models to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using localized Bayes factors. We illustrate the approach using data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.