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General Departmental Seminar Series

Bayesian estimation of quality-adjusted life expectancy using
longitudinal observations from the Beaver Dam studies.

Dennis Fryback, Ph.D.,
Department of Population Health Sciences,
University of Wisconsin-Madison

December 10, 2004, 12 - 1 pm in room G5/113 Clinical Sciences Center (600 Highland Ave.)

ABSTRACT

There are many different sources for estimates of age- and sex-specific life expectancy (LE). However nowhere are estimates of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) available for U.S. adults. We use 4 observations of participants in three Beaver Dam studies spread irregularly over 12 years to estimate 10-year age-, sex-, and self-rated health- specific QALE in older adults. Quality of life is computed from an econometric transformation of SF-36 data (Brazier, 2002) and modeled using an autoregressive process. Survival is modeled parametrically using a Weibull hazard. Both quality of life and survival models were estimated using Bayesian methods and combined to compute QALE. Marginal distributions for age-, sex-, and initial self-rated health- specific QALE were obtained by numerical integration over posterior uncertainty in the QoL and survival model constants.

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