UW Madison UW School of Medicine and Public Health
UW Biiostatistics & Medical Informatics UW Biostatistics & Medical Informatics UW Madison UW Biostatistics & Medical Informatics Site Map

Seminars

General Departmental Seminar Series

Potential risk reversal due to heterogeneity

David Oakes
Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology
University of Rochester

 

Wednesday, October 17, 2007
12:00 pm
5275 MSC

 

ABSTRACT
 


Prompted by unexpected results from a study of the influence of coronary disease-related
genotypes on recurrent cardiac events among patients whom had already experienced a
myocardial infarction, we consider the potential for risk reversal due to selection in a
heterogeneous population. We discuss two possible mechanisms, frailty selection
and frailty enrichment. Under a simple frailty enrichment model in which the total risk
for an event is the sum of an observed and an unobserved component, we show that
among those who have experienced a first event, those with the higher observed risk
may be at lower risk of a second event, even if, at an individual level, the risks for the
second event are the same as those for the first event.

Reference: Oakes, D. (2006). On potential risk reversal due to heterogeneity.
Student. 5, pp. 205-210
.

Return to seminar list